Chuuk and Independence

On March 3, 2015, the people of Chuuk will vote on whether they will remain a state in the FSM or will become an independent republic.  This will be an historical year for Chuuk.
After WWII, the US became the trustee for a UN-created territory composed of hundreds of tiny Pacific islands.  The region was called Micronesia.  Although it made sense to administer the Trust Territories as one unit, the attempt resembled the British when they put Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds into one administrative unit, known as Iraq.  Micronesians are at least as diverse as the Iraqis, and the distance is substantially greater, so the effort to combine all Pacific Islands into one nation was doomed from the start.
Palau refused to join the FSM; the Marshall Islands also pulled out, and each of those groups formed a separate nation.  The Northern Marianas also refused to join the FSM, and instead they voted to become a commonwealth within the US.  Guam, with its established military base, remained a separate nation, as a territory of the US.  That left Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae as the only "states" left for the FSM.
Inevitably, differences among the islanders made it difficult to form a cohesive union and sectarian preferences have led to charges of discrimination.  Many Chuukese believe that the FSM national government (whose President is himself, Chuukese) does not adequately represent them, and they want out.
Some of the criticism stems from the FSM Constitution itself; while Chuuk hosts half of the nation's population, and thus half of the Congressmen, each Congressman has one vote on a bill's first reading.  But on the crucial second reading, each state has one vote each, meaning that laws, spending bills, and other measures are voted by members, to assign them to committees, but when it comes to actually adopting the measures, Chuuk's half of the FSM Congress only gets 1/4 of the vote.
Some complaints arise from the repeated instances of Chuukese paperwork being lost within the national campus, going both ways.  Requests to the national government have gone missing.  Notices from the national government have not been delivered to Chuuk.  Such an event, now and then, could be overlooked, but there seems to be more than coincidence involved.
US funding under the Compact of Free Association provides the opportunity for development, but Chuuk's projects are routinely delayed.  Already, Chuuk is over $50 million behind in using Compact funds, and there may be no way for Chuuk to access its authorized funds before the Compact ends, in 2023.  If the other states decide to divy up the unused funds, conspiracy theorists will deem their suspicions verified.
An independent Chuuk won't pose a threat to any of the world's powers.  However, it may present an opportunity to establish an outpost for powers in the Pacific, and that is what makes the vote so interesting.
You won't hear much about the Chuuk plebiscite in the news; it isn't as glamorous as Scotland's vote, or as divisive as Crimea or Eastern Ukraine or even Catalonia, but it is part of a growing trend for the secession of ethnic groups from coalitions created long ago by former powers.  It is as though WalMart is breaking up into stores that sell groceries vs. those that sell toys or household goods.  It may seem counter-intuitive, if you view matters from a profit perspective, but when viewed from a tribal basis, it makes perfect sense.
Is the world becoming more tribal?  Would that lead to chaos or more order?  Would that lead to more, but smaller wars?  Would WalMart shoppers clamor for a strong leader to unify us in spite of tribal differences?